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Disruptions to the oil supply (due to the financial sanctions against Russia) will be relatively modest, taking no more than 3 million barrels of Russian crude oil from the market per day.

Europe (led by Germany) has acknowledged its interdependence on Russian gas supplies and refused to join the US ban on imports from Russia. However, Europe is participating in the financial sanctions, which will damage some vital supplies of grain, metals and oil from Russia, severely slowing Europe’s growth.

Expert assessments suggest that Iran already had enough fissile materials (45 kg of uranium-235 enriched to a 90% concentration) to produce one nuclear bomb by January 2022, although it does not yet have the full capacity to produce a nuclear warhead.

The Iran Nuclear Deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – should be revived by the end of March 2022 if it does not become completely obsolete, although any deal would require the transfer of surplus nuclear fuel from Iran to Russia (as in 2015), reducing the Russia’s negotiating position is enhanced.

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This post Binary Risks of the Resurgence of the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal), the Wider Impact of Financial Sanctions on Russia: ICICI Securities

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