All of this is why Chris Watling, the chief executive officer and chief market strategist of Longview Economics, told Bloomberg Television that he estimates the probability of a near-term recession at close to 10% to 15%. “It’s not my main business,” he said of a recession. “There is too much money on the sidelines in people’s bank accounts. Yes, we’ve had a bit of an oil price spike and we’ve had a gas price spike and these are problems, but if you listen to what the CEOs of US banks are saying… people of all income levels have a lot more money in the bank, they had pre-pandemic, so there is a cushion.”

This post Bond yield curve does not signal a recession yet

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