PUNE: The statistical models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) could not have predicted all three droughts in India over the past decade. While statistical models are still used for monsoon forecasting, the Department of Earth Sciences is putting more emphasis on dynamic models.
M Rajeevan of the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory said: “The inability to predict the 2009 drought has raised many serious problems. On the other hand, the state-of-the-art coupled atmospheric models of the ocean have shown improved skills in predicting inter-annual variability. . of the rainfall of the Indian summer monsoon.”
He spoke at the Golden Jubilee Conference of the Indian Institute of Climate Change (IITM), Pune, on “opportunities and challenges in monsoon forecasting in a changing climate.” Since 2011, the IITM has been using the coupled monsoon forecast model.
Better weather forecasts need data from all parts of the world. “In every part of the world, farmers are saying that the climate is not what it used to be. That’s why traditional knowledge also falls short. For a better forecast of the weather, we need observations from all countries. We need supercomputers of even higher We must have knowledge of how to translate scientific progress into concrete applications,” said Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization.
This post India Meteorological Department uses dynamic models for forecasting
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