Data from Denmark and Sweden, the two countries where BA.2 gained a foothold early on, suggest that declining immunity isn’t driving the increase in infections so much as BA.2’s superior ability to infect humans. Denmark had to deal with an early, huge ommicron wave; which arguably provided a high level of immunity to BA.1 and BA.2, preventing their resurgence. But even Sweden, which had a smaller wave of BA.2 infections, is now seeing no increase in infections. Both have similar vaccination rates. The infection curve would look very different if we saw waning immunity instead of the arrival of BA.2.

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